Vision on ATM in the future

La déclaration ci-dessous se passe de commentaire ... elle n'a pour auteur ni le PDG de Ryannair, ni un quelconque libero-technocrate de Bruxelles, elle exprime simplement la vision du nouveau directeur du centre de recherche et developpement d'Eurocontrol Brétigny donc probablement l'orientation politique qu'il souhaite lui donner !

"Until now, lucky or unlucky, that depends on how you look to it, there wasn’t much need for ATM research. The system could be expanded and was able to match the demand without fundamental change or too many “difficult” solutions that requested research. That is now going to change. The simple solutions, the low hanging fruit, are exhausted.

Looking ahead I feel that the requirements for safety, capacity and efficiency will lead to a diminishing tactical role for the human in the system. Machines can do that better and more predictable and they do not suffer from workload. That concept could get an enormous boost from the emergence of the UAV as one of the regular airspace users. Suddenly we are pioneering pilot-less aircraft, have to create “see-decide-avoid” systems without a man in the loop, have to think mission oriented and not about aircraft in different stages of flight. So watch it, I like to advise you because this could have a profound impact on our world.

A bit less exotic I expect that in the coming period both in TMA and en route the 4-D trajectory contract will be implemented, leading to a far more predictable traffic picture and thus lower workload. That will be followed by gradually shifting to full airborne self separation in the en route phase, further diminishing the need for raising the number of controllers proportional to the rise in traffic. For a long time to come, such self separation will always be followed to a transition to a 4-D controlled situation in the TMA and the airport. Prerequisites for this are full deployment of enablers as data link, ADS-B, PRNAV and GNSS, to name a few. Especially the outlook on a decrement of the human component in the system, being the biggest cost factor, will make the airlines enthusiastic for investments in the concept."